Gambling on Technology

I noted the other day:

"One more nail in the coffin for HD-DVD: Netflix has dropped the high-def DVD format in favor of Blu-ray. This is why you should be careful not to waste money on the very newest technologies, you'd hate to invest heavily in the next betamax, a good technology that was rejected nevertheless."

HD-DVD is now officially dead. Toshiba has called it quits. The next generation of high definition DVD will be Sony's Blu-Ray.

So do you feel bad for dropping a fortune on a defunct format? You're in good company, almost everybody with a Blu-ray device is in almost the same boat. That's right, Blu-ray is evolving and (except for the PS3) most Blu-ray players can't play the new Blu-ray 2.0 format. So anybody with a high definition device right now is looking at replacing that device in the near future, to stay current. It pays to just sit back and let it sort itself out.

It's usually the prudent move to let new consumer technology mature a bit before diving in. The price comes down after a year or two and the refined versions are often much improved over the originals. With Blu-ray specifically, I'm loathe to invest anything in it because I believe movie rentals is going digital in the long run. Your rentals and personal video library may be on a hard drive and not a shelf.

Here's a short list of gadgets I'm waiting for:

• the iPhone - Everyone needs a phone and I'd like to have a PDA but I don't want to carry two or more devices (though I could have a utility belt like Batman…). The iPhone is perfect in my estimation – it's just too expensive right now.
• High-Definition TV - We bought a 720p TV last summer (it was a good deal) but we watch standard definition programming on it. HD programming and HD TiVo are finally coming down to a level that's reasonable but I'm patient enough to wait until it's just right…
• Apple TV - As I said above, the future of HD movie rentals is digital, a la iTunes and MP3s. Apple TV, which is like an iPod for your TV, is very likely what we're all looking at in a few years. DVD players, like CD music players, will become more and more unnecessary as we get our entertainment content over the internet.