I Will Survive, Week 4

**Spoiler Warning**
Do not read this post if you haven't yet seen this week's episode of Survivor.



…you've been warned!



How do you balance the needs you have now against the needs you're going to have later? The alliance of guys in the La Mina tribe had to choose which woman they were going to toss overboard. You've made a deal with the older but more loyal Ruth Marie, so toss the young and capricious Sally, right? Not so fast, you're going to be down five-to-seven in manpower and Ruth Marie is physically weak, likely the weakest link in the chain. Sally ought to be more helpful winning future contests but can you trust her as far as you can throw her? Ruth Marie is low-risk, low-reward; Sally is high-risk, high reward. Pick your poison.

The La Mina men decide to keep Sally with only Dan keeping his promise to Ruth Marie. I'll bet they just missed their best chance to get rid of Sally, who'll probably remain more of a threat than an asset. They should have listened to Dan.

Cirie of the Casaya tribe is in a good place now. The obvious odd-woman-out early on, Cirie has played perfectly the hand dealt to her – and it's all jokers. Because of all the infighting and irrational behavior of her tribe-mates, Cirie might be the only one of the seven without an enemy right now. Not only is she not at high risk of being dumped, she's put herself in the position to decide the fate of the others. Each faction will need her vote and she can just pick sides! With the shattered alliance of Shane, Aras, Danielle, and Courtney fighting each other, I predict that Cirie will sail into the merge, at least making the top eight. Who knew?

Terry has a leg up late in the game now that he has the immunity idol. If he can take that into the merge, he can orchestrate the downfall of his rival, whoever that may be at the time. It's easy to imagine scenarios where he can turn the game on its ear and single-handedly eliminate a powerful opponant. He's the early favorite.

Random observations:

• This is the first time in Survivor history that the first four eliminations have been of one gender. In this case, the men now outnumber the women 2-to-1.
• The original Casaya tribe of four older women has been wiped out… except for Cirie.
• I see Cirie aligning herself with Aras and Shane, and with Bruce and possibly Bobby, they can eliminate Courtney and Danielle. Cirie and Sally could easily be the last two women in the game.
• I would eliminate Bobby asap. He's coasting now (shame, shame) and could be a threat later because of his physical strength.
  
• Only Bruce has not yet cast a vote in tribal council.
• Ruth Marie, on the other hand, has been a tribal council fixture. She has participated in three of the four and been voted for six times (twice by Sally), more than anyone else to date.