I Will Survive, Week 5

**Spoiler Warning**
Do not read this post if you haven't yet seen this week's episode of Survivor.



…you've been warned!



To flop or not to flop. That is the question – or at least it will be soon.

In Survivor, you eventually get down to one tribe of about 10 people. This is called the merge and it's likely just a few episodes away. The question is whether or not you'll "dance with the girl that brung ya." In other words do you stay with your previous alliance or do you flop to new alliances in order to survive?

Bobby swears (on Shane's son, no less) that he won't flop. Uh, yeah, right. His tribe doesn't believe it and they bump him off before he can do any damage. But who else might be Machiavellian floppers?

The most obvious choice on La Mina is Sally. I mean, does she really feel like one of the guys? Surely if she sees a chance to tip the scales, she'll betray the men on her tribe.

Who might flop on the Casaya tribe? How about everyone? Whatever they have, it's the opposite of esprit de corps. Most of dysfunctional Casaya would rather side with the La Mina men than their own tribemates. The only exception might be Courtney and Danielle, who would naturally gravitate toward Sally. But the three young women would need at least two or three others to avoid being in the minority after the merge.

After the merge, I think the La Mina men could draw in Cirie, Aras, or Bruce into their alliance, and if I were Terry, I would pursue them in that order. Anything could happen but I would be surprised if the three young women would be asked to join. Shane is such a wild card, I just don't know.

Random observations:

• I called it about Bobby, they got rid of him for being lazy, rude, and untrustworthy. Go figure.
• I was also right about Cirie latching on to Aras and Shane. Cirie is the best player in the game right now (Terry is a close second and my favorite to win).
  
• As noted above, my gut says Terry should bring Cirie into his sphere of influence after the merge (and yes I think Cirie and Terry will make the merge – they're the two I'm really certain of – and maybe Aras).
• How does someone not go home sick? At some point you'd think a few of these folks (Nick and Austin!) would throw in the towel. But maybe not.
  
• What if next week's "tribal council like never before" is Casaya in a two or three way tie? I think Survivor has had ties before, but who knows how they will resolve it this time?